Daniel Jones & the Era of the Second Chance Quarterback
A surprising resurgence & what it tells us about the life cycle of an NFL quarterback
Three weeks into the NFL season and it is safe to say that the surprise team has been the Indianapolis Colts. In the preseason, they were expected to be a middling team in a mediocre division. The win total was placed at 7.5 and the odds of them making the Super Bowl were 1,000-to-1. Those odds today have improved to 300-to-1 (according to FanDuel Sportsbook)—an indication of just how shocking of a turnaround it has been for a team that finished 8-9 last season and reeked of mediocrity and uncertainty.
A driving force of their success has been their quarterback Daniel Jones, who signed with the team after being cut by the Giants and spending some time in Minnesota last season. Jones has reinvented himself in Indianapolis, playing mistake-free football and giving Colts fans reason to believe in their team again. He is the latest in a long line of quarterbacks that have resurrected their careers with a new opportunity, and this feels more tangible than any of us could have thought.
The Rise of “Indiana Jones”
When the Colts signed Daniel Jones, the intention seemed clear: to bring in a veteran that could push Anthony Richardson and challenge him for his starting spot. Richardson, while possessing incredible physical traits, has struggled to acclimate to the NFL game and has also dealt with injuries in his young career. Jones at the very least, would be a capable backup who has won games in the NFL should the young and exciting Richardson go down.
But it didn’t play out that way. Jones outplayed Richardson in training camp and the preseason, which led to a decision for the Colts. At 28 years old, Jones still has a lot of his prime left, and the Colts made the decision to name him the starter rather than toiling in hopes that Richardson would quickly figure out NFL defenses.
The story of Daniel Jones is one mired in eye rolls by NFL fans at large. People remember the Giants reaching for him by selecting him sixth overall in the 2019 NFL Draft—ahead of players like Ed Oliver and Brian Burns. They remember his fourth season when he led a mediocre Giants team to the playoffs despite his numbers not being overly impressive. They remember the Giants choosing to prioritize paying him instead of extending Saquon Barkley. And of course, they remember him tripping and falling on an 80-yard run.
Many Colts fans resigned themselves to the idea that this was going to be a bridge year, and that they would find their next quarterback in the Draft next season. Whatever the thought process was, Daniel Jones didn’t get the memo. Through three games, the Colts offense has punted once. Jones has only been sacked twice and has yet to throw an interception. His stats are filled with career highs:
Passing success rate: 61.1% (+16 points versus career best)
Yards per attempt: 9.3 (+2.5 versus career best)
Air yards per attempt: 9.95 (+3 versus career best)
Passer rating: 111.7 (+19.2 versus career best)
Passing yards per game: 272 (+39.2 versus career best)
The turnaround has earned him a new nickname, long gone is “Danny Dimes”; he is now “Indiana Jones”—which may be the best NFL nickname I’ve heard in years.
It’s not just that Jones is passing the test by his own standards, through Week 3 he is also statistically dominating by league standards as well. He ranks fourth in the league in completion percentage, third in passing yards, second in yards per attempt, second in air yards per attempt, fourth in yards per game, and first in passing success rate. His numbers have been staggering and it seems that he has found a perfect fit with the Colts after seeming like a lost man in his last days as a Giant.
It is important to note that the Colts’ schedule so far has been modest. They beat up on Tennessee and Miami, and both of those teams have yet to record a win this season. They beat Denver thanks to a leverage penalty on the game-winning kick. But even against a well-respected Denver defense Jones produced—throwing for 316 yards with a touchdown and completing 67.6% of his passes. The next month will tell us a lot about the validity of Jones’ re-emergence as the Colts look ahead to matchups against the Rams and Chargers. Recent history shows that this is not fool’s gold, that Daniel Jones, like others before him, simply needed a change of scenery.
The Reclamation of Talent
NFL teams need exceptional quarterback play to be successful. The days of relying solely on a strong running game and dominant defense alone are firmly in the past. The NFL has prioritized offense and the passing game, and without a capable player under center, a team has no true chance. The Colts have learned this lesson the hard way, having trotted out the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, and Gardner Minshew before deciding to draft Anthony Richardson.
The Colts had assembled a great roster alongside those middling veteran quarterbacks, but it has only resulted in one playoff appearance since 2019. The bottom didn’t completely fall out in that time as the team went a combined 48-51-1 in that span. Not embarrassing but also not good enough to compete in the AFC. That realization is why they drafted Anthony Richardson and is also why they have decided to move off of him when they haven’t seen him develop the way that they were hoping.
The importance of having an elite quarterback means that teams often let go of young quarterbacks that aren’t working for them. It’s the very same reason why the Giants decided to move on from Daniel Jones. When teams move on, it is not after a decade or so of service—but rather after four or five years, or rather, the length of a rookie contract. This means that they have an opportunity to play for another team while still in their prime.
This reality has led to the resurgence of a number of quarterbacks in recent years. Geno Smith resurrected his career at 32 with the Seahawks after being a backup for six years following a two-year experiment with the Jets. The Browns moved on from Baker Mayfield after four seasons, and after a year as a backup in Carolina and Los Angeles, he rejuvenated his career with Tampa Bay and is coming off of back-to-back playoff and Pro Bowl appearances. Sam Darnold, another Jets cast-off, went through backup roles with Carolina and San Francisco before breaking out with Minnesota last year and signing with Seattle this off-season.
Former highly drafted quarterbacks are now experiencing a second lease on life. There is another path though, the one that seems more likely for players in this predicament: evolving into a capable backup. This is what has happened with Mac Jones and Zach Wilson, who are currently backup quarterbacks in San Francisco and Miami, respectively. They are good enough to win a game or two, but not reliable as franchise leaders.
For Daniel Jones, it seemed that the life of a backup was in his future. But through three weeks he has shown the flashes that we saw in 2022, but evolved. His bad throw percentage (10.3%) is at a career low, while his on-target percentage (82.8%) is a career high. This is despite his pocket time mirroring what he experienced in New York. This tells us that he is being smarter with the football while also reading defenses at a level that he never did before.
The AFC South is a division that has always been strange, and this year is no exception. Houston has yet to win a game, and its offense looks lost. Jacksonville’s receiving corps has dropped passes with increasing regularity. And Tennessee is going through the growing pains with top draft pick Cam Ward. Their remaining schedule ranks as the 19th-toughest in the NFL (according to Tankathon), meaning that the Colts have a strong chance to win their division and make the playoffs this season.
For Daniel Jones, it is a potential redemption arc to finally silence those that remained skeptical of his playing ability. Perhaps more than anything, he is showing that he always belonged in this league—he just needed to step away from the Giants’ dysfunction for all of us to see it.